Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes

This paper studies fiscal policy in countries that have chosen an extreme monetary stance. We think of a country as having an extreme monetary policy if it is in either a currency board or a common currency area. In much of our analysis, we distinguish between multilateral currency unions (such as the East Caribbean Currency Area, or ECCA) and countries that have unilaterally adopted the currency of an anchor country (such as Panama).

It is possible to motivate our analysis in several ways. A number of countries are considering whether to abandon national monetary sovereignty and unilaterally adopt the money of another country, including Mexico and Argentina; Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador are already proceeding with dollarization. In Europe, 12 countries have already abandoned national monetary discretion within the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). More generally, there has been much discussion of the “disappearing center” of exchange rate regimes; countries are said to have a choice of either freely floating or going to an extreme monetary stance.

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UK Monetary Policy: Does it Work

The main instrument of UK monetary policy is the use of interest rates, set by the MPC. The theory is that interest rates are very effective in controlling inflationary pressures. The relative success of meeting the government’s inflation target in the past 7 years suggests that this proves the effectiveness of monetary policy.

In brief raising interest rates helps to reduce Aggregate demand in the economy. When interest rates are raised several things are affected. Firstly those with mortgages have higher monthly payments, this reduces their disposable income and reduces their spending. Secondly there is an increased incentive to save money rather than spend. Thirdly those who have other forms of borrowing will be hit with increased interest repayments, it will also discourage people from buying on credit. Therefore in principal raising interest rates will reduce demand and prevent the economy from overheating. This enables inflationary pressures to be subdued.

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Bond Fundamentals – Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy

It’s the Federal Reserve Bank that influences the money supply. Three tools are used to implement monetary policy:

  1. Open Market Operations
  2. Discount Rates
  3. Reserve Requirements

Since open market operations is the tool used most, we will cover it. Here’s how it works: When the economy is growing too fast and the Fed is worried about the inflation rate, it will sell government securities from its portfolio to the open market. This decreases bank reserves, which means the money supply decreases. When there are less bank and businesses have to pay the bank more in order to borrow. This discourages consumers and businesses from borrowing. Less borrowing means less spending, which slows the economy and eventually can reduce price pressures.

» Read more: Bond Fundamentals – Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy

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