This paper is investigates the relationship between the Japanese yield curve and monetary policy. In the 1980s and 1990s average bond yields have risen from 5% to 8% and then fallen to 2% and the slope of the yield curve has swung from positive to negative to positive. We are interested in understanding the contribution of monetary policy to these movements in the yield curve.
One motivation for our interest is Japan’s recent experience. In spite of massive increases in monetary base and a zero nominal interest rate, economic growth has remained low and deflationary pressure has not abated. These events are raising new questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy under a zero nominal interest rate policy. Eggertson and Woodford (2003) argue that a monetary authority can still influence economic activity when nominal interest rates are zero by taking actions that affect market expectations about the future time path of variables such as interest rates, inflation or exchange rates. One way to assess the ability of a central bank to affect expectations is to look retrospectively and ascertain the extent to which previous monetary policy surprises have affected bond yields of different maturities. If monetary policy is indeed a potent tool for altering expectations then this should show up in the responses and variance decompositions of medium and long-term bonds yields to suitably identified shocks to monetary policy.
» Read more: Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in Japan.
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