Why Did the Chinese President Condemn US Monetary Policy at Davos and the BRIC Conference

When we start looking at the political posturing around the world, we see world leaders and their advisors making serious mistakes. The President of China made a huge mistake when he condemned the United States of America at the Davos World Economic Forum. Now, it is true that there were many people upset with the Credit Default Swaps, and to the Mortgage Bundles that helped bring down the global economy.

Still, the president of China owes the United States a great sense of gratitude. If it were not for the US middle class consumer, China could not have experienced the 10% GDP growth year-over-year that they have for the last two decades. In fact, China would not have the third of fourth largest GDP of any nation on this planet if it weren’t for the United States buying all of their exports.

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Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

Among other things that influence interest rates, monetary policy is also one of them. Democratic governments use two policy tools to help their economies thrive. There is the fiscal policy and monetary policy.

First, let us discuss the difference of fiscal policy to monetary policy. Fiscal policy pertains to the power of the government with congresses or parliament’s consent to increase or decrease tax rates. To increase tax rates, would mean to take away the disposable income of civilians. Think of it this way, the economy is a wheel. The movement of money makes the wheel turn. When people spend less money, the economy turns slowly. So the government increases taxation. The extra money the government collects is then spent on projects that will pour money back into companies for government mandated projects. These companies in turn will give them back to the people by employing more employees or by paying their existing ones with more. Such spending is also known as “pump-priming” activities.

Another instrument of fiscal policy would be for the government to borrow money for its expenditures. They do this so as not to over tax their citizens and provoke protest actions against their management. However, borrowing is not always an option. Lenders do not easily part with their funds. The general economic environment is placed into consideration.

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Has Monetary Policy Been So Bad That It Is Better to Get Rid of It? The Case of Mexico

MANY LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES are considering adopting the U.S. dollar as legal currency, and some, like Ecuador, have taken concrete steps in that direction. Proponents of dollarization generally hold the view that domestic monetary policy has been the primary cause for the economic instability experienced by these countries in the past three decades. Yet, at least for Mexico, very few empirical studies have tried to identify the role of monetary policy.

The existing empirical literature on Mexican monetary policy consists mainly of single equation estimations (see Calvo and Mendoza 1996 and Kamin and Rogers 1996), or of reduced-form vector autoregressions (see Copelman and Werner 1995 and Hernandez 1999).(1) The first class of models is silent on the impact of monetary policy on the rest of the economy. The second class of models, by definition, cannot identify monetary policy. In addition, all previous literature has either ignored the issue of changes in regime, or has confined itself to the study of monetary policy within regimes. This despite the fact that some of Mexico’s major crises occurred during the passage from one regime to another. A proper evaluation of the impact of monetary policy on the Mexican economy requires that these critical transition periods are considered.

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