Independent Review of the Operation of Monetary Policy in New Zealand

In May 2000, the Government announced that the New Zealand monetary policy framework would be reviewed. Professor Lars Svensson of Stockholm University was appointed to undertake the review and to report by the end of February 2001. Professor Svensson’s report was released by the Treasurer/Minister of Finance on 28 February.

In this issue of the Bulletin, we have published the Executive Summary and recommendations of the Svensson Report, together with the terms of reference of the review. The complete report by Professor Svensson can be obtained from the New Zealand Treasury and can be accessed on www.monpolreview.govt.nz – the monetary policy review website, and on www.rbnz.govt.nz – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s website.

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Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in Japan.

This paper is investigates the relationship between the Japanese yield curve and monetary policy. In the 1980s and 1990s average bond yields have risen from 5% to 8% and then fallen to 2% and the slope of the yield curve has swung from positive to negative to positive. We are interested in understanding the contribution of monetary policy to these movements in the yield curve.

One motivation for our interest is Japan’s recent experience. In spite of massive increases in monetary base and a zero nominal interest rate, economic growth has remained low and deflationary pressure has not abated. These events are raising new questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy under a zero nominal interest rate policy. Eggertson and Woodford (2003) argue that a monetary authority can still influence economic activity when nominal interest rates are zero by taking actions that affect market expectations about the future time path of variables such as interest rates, inflation or exchange rates. One way to assess the ability of a central bank to affect expectations is to look retrospectively and ascertain the extent to which previous monetary policy surprises have affected bond yields of different maturities. If monetary policy is indeed a potent tool for altering expectations then this should show up in the responses and variance decompositions of medium and long-term bonds yields to suitably identified shocks to monetary policy.

» Read more: Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in Japan.

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UK Monetary Policy: Does it Work

The main instrument of UK monetary policy is the use of interest rates, set by the MPC. The theory is that interest rates are very effective in controlling inflationary pressures. The relative success of meeting the government’s inflation target in the past 7 years suggests that this proves the effectiveness of monetary policy.

In brief raising interest rates helps to reduce Aggregate demand in the economy. When interest rates are raised several things are affected. Firstly those with mortgages have higher monthly payments, this reduces their disposable income and reduces their spending. Secondly there is an increased incentive to save money rather than spend. Thirdly those who have other forms of borrowing will be hit with increased interest repayments, it will also discourage people from buying on credit. Therefore in principal raising interest rates will reduce demand and prevent the economy from overheating. This enables inflationary pressures to be subdued.

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