Banks and Monetary Policy: the Mechanics of Interest Rates Setting

We hear a lot about interest rates, and not only in my professional field of expertise. Interest rates are everywhere to be found in our daily lives: credit card interest, interest on deposits, car loan interest, personal loan interest, treasury bond interest. The other day I received a spam e-mail that said: “Need new socks ? Apply for our Family Loan – competitive interest rates”. Since I am single and own approximately fifty pairs of socks – they seem to be the preferred Christmas present in my household – I decided not to push the ‘Click Here’ button. But just what are the mechanics of interest rate setting? Who decides which interest rate to charge to whom – and how?

Paul Volcker, while chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1979-87), was often called the second most powerful person in the United States. Volcker triggered the “double-dip” recessions of 1979-80 and 1981-82, vanquishing the double-digit inflation of 1979-80 and bringing the unemployment rate into double digits for the first time since 1940. Volcker then declared victory over inflation and piloted the economy through its long 1980s recovery, bringing unemployment below 5.5 percent, half a point lower than in the 1978-79 boom and helping Ronald Reagan convert the American people to Reaganomics. Volcker was powerful because he was making monetary policy. Central banks are powerful everywhere for the same reason, although few are as independent of their governments as the Fed is of Congress and the White House. Central bank actions are the most important government policies affecting economic activity from quarter to quarter or year to year.

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Monetary Aggregates Play Little Role In The Conduct Of Monetary Policy

In conventional macroeconomic thinking, the money supply is considered the main determinant of long-run inflation. A variety of monetary aggregates have been proposed to measure the money supply. Yet, nowadays, monetary aggregates play little role in monetary policy deliberations at most central banks.

A new study in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking examines the leading arguments for assigning an important role to tracking the growth of monetary aggregates when making decisions about monetary policy. The analysis finds that none of the arguments provides a compelling reason to assign a prominent role to monetary aggregates.

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Monetary and fiscal policy switching.

Two THEMES RUN through policy analysis: rules determining policy choice are functions of economic conditions; those rules may change over time. The themes reflect the views that actual policy behavior is purposeful, rather than arbitrary, and that good policy adapts to changes in the structure of the economy or to improvements in understanding how policy affects the economy.

A growing body of evidence finds that policy reaction functions vary substantially over different periods in the United States. In light of this evidence of regime shifts, which is reviewed in Section 1, it is surprising that there is little formal modeling of environments where ongoing regime change is stochastic, and the objects subject to change are parameters determining how the economy feeds back to policy choice.

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