Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes

This paper studies fiscal policy in countries that have chosen an extreme monetary stance. We think of a country as having an extreme monetary policy if it is in either a currency board or a common currency area. In much of our analysis, we distinguish between multilateral currency unions (such as the East Caribbean Currency Area, or ECCA) and countries that have unilaterally adopted the currency of an anchor country (such as Panama).

It is possible to motivate our analysis in several ways. A number of countries are considering whether to abandon national monetary sovereignty and unilaterally adopt the money of another country, including Mexico and Argentina; Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador are already proceeding with dollarization. In Europe, 12 countries have already abandoned national monetary discretion within the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). More generally, there has been much discussion of the “disappearing center” of exchange rate regimes; countries are said to have a choice of either freely floating or going to an extreme monetary stance.

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Why Adult Education?

Whether one appreciates it or not, to live is to learn on a daily basis. Unless you simply repeat what you have always done, day in and day out, you are encountering at least slightly new situations which require you to think and lean in new and possibly challenging ways. Nothing is quite the same as it was decades ago, whether it be grocery shopping, driving a car, going to the doctor, or making career decisions, financial plans or political choices. The world has changed, and you and I must change with it!

Adult education is based on the idea that there is much more change in life than might meet the eye. Among the most successful people around are those who embrace life conscientiously, learn constantly, and wrestle with life’s challenges and opportunities with an intelligent and thoughtful enthusiasm. In other words, those who “make good sense a way of life.” Some individuals have a natural curiosity and interest in ideas and things new. They enjoy learning and are easily comfortable, even happy, with change and growth. Others, however, seem to learn, grow and change only by being sort of “dragged through” life. They tend to have less of an appreciation of the somewhat exciting dynamics that growth and change present. Theoretically, adult education is good for everyone. But, only those who relish life will likely enjoy it.

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Banks and Monetary Policy: the Mechanics of Interest Rates Setting

We hear a lot about interest rates, and not only in my professional field of expertise. Interest rates are everywhere to be found in our daily lives: credit card interest, interest on deposits, car loan interest, personal loan interest, treasury bond interest. The other day I received a spam e-mail that said: “Need new socks ? Apply for our Family Loan – competitive interest rates”. Since I am single and own approximately fifty pairs of socks – they seem to be the preferred Christmas present in my household – I decided not to push the ‘Click Here’ button. But just what are the mechanics of interest rate setting? Who decides which interest rate to charge to whom – and how?

Paul Volcker, while chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1979-87), was often called the second most powerful person in the United States. Volcker triggered the “double-dip” recessions of 1979-80 and 1981-82, vanquishing the double-digit inflation of 1979-80 and bringing the unemployment rate into double digits for the first time since 1940. Volcker then declared victory over inflation and piloted the economy through its long 1980s recovery, bringing unemployment below 5.5 percent, half a point lower than in the 1978-79 boom and helping Ronald Reagan convert the American people to Reaganomics. Volcker was powerful because he was making monetary policy. Central banks are powerful everywhere for the same reason, although few are as independent of their governments as the Fed is of Congress and the White House. Central bank actions are the most important government policies affecting economic activity from quarter to quarter or year to year.

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