MANY LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES are considering adopting the U.S. dollar as legal currency, and some, like Ecuador, have taken concrete steps in that direction. Proponents of dollarization generally hold the view that domestic monetary policy has been the primary cause for the economic instability experienced by these countries in the past three decades. Yet, at least for Mexico, very few empirical studies have tried to identify the role of monetary policy.
The existing empirical literature on Mexican monetary policy consists mainly of single equation estimations (see Calvo and Mendoza 1996 and Kamin and Rogers 1996), or of reduced-form vector autoregressions (see Copelman and Werner 1995 and Hernandez 1999).(1) The first class of models is silent on the impact of monetary policy on the rest of the economy. The second class of models, by definition, cannot identify monetary policy. In addition, all previous literature has either ignored the issue of changes in regime, or has confined itself to the study of monetary policy within regimes. This despite the fact that some of Mexico’s major crises occurred during the passage from one regime to another. A proper evaluation of the impact of monetary policy on the Mexican economy requires that these critical transition periods are considered.
» Read more: Has Monetary Policy Been So Bad That It Is Better to Get Rid of It? The Case of Mexico