Posts Tagged money
Monetary Aggregates Play Little Role In The Conduct Of Monetary Policy
In conventional macroeconomic thinking, the money supply is considered the main determinant of long-run inflation. A variety of monetary aggregates have been proposed to measure the money supply. Yet, nowadays, monetary aggregates play little role in monetary policy deliberations at most central banks.
A new study in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking examines the leading arguments for assigning an important role to tracking the growth of monetary aggregates when making decisions about monetary policy. The analysis finds that none of the arguments provides a compelling reason to assign a prominent role to monetary aggregates.
Tags: banks, economic, economy, Gates, Import, inflation, Information, Journal, michael woodford, monetary, monetary policy, monetary policy strategy, monetary trends, money, money supply, Special, Strategy, Study, targets, University, woodfordRelated posts
Does monetary policy have asymmetric effects on stock returns
IT HAS BEEN OF GREAT interest to both macroeconomists and financial economists of whether monetary policy affects stock returns. A number of studies have empirically investigated the effects of monetary policy on stock returns. Using money aggregate data as a measure of money supply, some empirical studies agree that stock returns lag behind changes in monetary policy; for instance, see Keran (1971), Homa and Jaffee (1971), and Hamburner and Kochin (1972). In contrast, Cooper (1974), Pesando (1974), Rozeff (1974), and Rogalski and Vinso (1977) show that there is no significant forecasting power of past changes in money. Ever since the seminal paper by Bernanke and Blinder (1992), the Federal funds rate has been the most widely used measure of monetary policy. As such, the relationship between monetary policy and stock returns has been reexamined by using the interest rate instrument in the financial literature. Thorbecke (1997) and Patelis (1997) demonstrate that shifts in monetary policy help to explain U.S. stock returns. Conover, Jensen, and Johnson (1999) show that foreign stock returns generally react both to local and U.S. monetary policy.
Two important contributions to the literature on the effects of monetary policy on the stock market have been made. The first one emphasizes the roles of financial markets’ expectations about the future course of monetary policy. Bernanke and Kuttner (2003) extract unanticipated monetary policy from Federal funds futures and find that monetary policy surprises appear to have a significant effect on equity prices through changes in the equity premium. The second focus is on the prospect of endogeneity. Rigobon and Sack (2003) show that the causality between interest rates and stock prices may run in both directions. After accounting for this endogeneity, they find a significant monetary policy response to the stock market.
Tags: Accounting, bull market, contractionary, contractionary monetary policy, Course, economic, Financial, financial market, Gates, Import, Information, interest rate, interest rates, market, markets, models, monetary, monetary policy, money, money supply, stock, stock market, stock price, stock prices, stock returns, Studies, Study, Study The, the stock marketRelated posts
Taking stock: monetary policy transmission to equity markets.(analysis)
ONE CENTRAL ARGUMENT of James Tobin’s seminal 1969 Journal of Money, Credit and Banking paper was that “financial policies” can play a crucial role in altering what later became known as Tobin’s q, the market value of a firm’s assets relative to their replacement costs. Tobin emphasized that, in particular, monetary policy can change this ratio. This 1969 JMCB paper together with another of his contributions (Tobin 1978) became a key element in the formulation and understanding of the stock market channel of monetary policy transmission. Tobin’s argument in this work was that a tightening of monetary policy, which may result from an increase in inflation, lowers the present value of future earning flows and hence depresses equity markets.
The second part of Tobin’s argument, namely the relationship between monetary policy and equity prices, is still not very well understood. On the one hand, it has proven difficult to properly identify monetary policy, since monetary policy may be endogenous in that central banks might react to developments in stock markets. Considerable progress has recently been made in this respect. Rigobon and Sack (2002, 2003) develop a methodology that exploits the heteroskedasticity present in financial markets to identify monetary policy shocks, while Kuttner (2001) and Bernanke and Kuttner (2003) derive monetary policy shocks through measures of market expectations obtained from federal funds futures contracts. In this paper, we will employ a methodology similar to Bernanke and Kuttner (2003), by identifying monetary policy shocks through market expectations obtained from surveys of market participants.
Tags: Affiliate, Bank Loan, Bank Loans, banks, Financial, financial market, Import, inflation, Information, interest rate, interest rates, Journal, Loans, market, markets, monetary, monetary policy, monetary policy shocks, monetary policy transmission, money, Public, Research, stock, stock market, stock markets, stock price, stock prices, stock returns, stocks, the stock marketRelated posts
