Thinking Positively About Monetary Policy – How “Quantitative Easing” Can Serve The Public Good

Nervous pundits are predicting the end of American life as we know it, after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced on March 18 that he would be dropping yet another trillion dollars in helicopter money – up to $300 billion to buy long-term government bonds and an additional $750 billion to buy private debt, with the Term Asset-backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) to be opened up for the sake of consumers and small businesses. The dollar immediately experienced its worst drop in 25 years, amid worries that the Fed’s intervention would spur hyperinflation. Typical of the concerned commentators expressing these sentiments was Mark Larson, who wrote in “Money and Markets” on March 20:

“This is Banana Republic-type stuff! And I’m not talking about the clothing store. Printing money out of thin air at the central bank, only to turn around and buy debt securities issued by your Treasury, is the kind of practice you typically see in emerging market regimes. We’re essentially monetizing our country’s debt and deliberately devaluing our country’s currency.”

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Monetary policy and long-term interest rates: a survey of empirical literature.

This paper surveys recent empirical literature on effects of monetary policy on long-term interest rates. Most studies reviewed here suggest that tightening monetary policy results in higher long-term interest rates. But available evidence suffers from conceptual and empirical problems and fails to indicate the magnitude of short-run and long-run policy effects on long rates. Also, recent studies have not investigated the possibility of shifts in recent-year effects of monetary policy on long rates. Finally, the paper offers a policy perspective on limitations of existing evidence and suggests future research on monetary policy effects on long rates.

I. INTRODUCTION

» Read more: Monetary policy and long-term interest rates: a survey of empirical literature.

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Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in Japan.

This paper is investigates the relationship between the Japanese yield curve and monetary policy. In the 1980s and 1990s average bond yields have risen from 5% to 8% and then fallen to 2% and the slope of the yield curve has swung from positive to negative to positive. We are interested in understanding the contribution of monetary policy to these movements in the yield curve.

One motivation for our interest is Japan’s recent experience. In spite of massive increases in monetary base and a zero nominal interest rate, economic growth has remained low and deflationary pressure has not abated. These events are raising new questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy under a zero nominal interest rate policy. Eggertson and Woodford (2003) argue that a monetary authority can still influence economic activity when nominal interest rates are zero by taking actions that affect market expectations about the future time path of variables such as interest rates, inflation or exchange rates. One way to assess the ability of a central bank to affect expectations is to look retrospectively and ascertain the extent to which previous monetary policy surprises have affected bond yields of different maturities. If monetary policy is indeed a potent tool for altering expectations then this should show up in the responses and variance decompositions of medium and long-term bonds yields to suitably identified shocks to monetary policy.

» Read more: Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in Japan.

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